Houston Market Update - June 2025

For this month’s Market Update, I’ll be giving y’all the headline stats that caught my attention, and then tying things together with my interpretation of what the numbers are showing us. 

So first, let’s start with the numbers:

• Interest rates:  As of writing the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.87% (Source: Mortgage News Daily)

• Mortgage Applications: Mortgage purchase applications are up 20% year-over-year (Source: Housingwire)

• Inventory is up 33% year over year nationally (Source: Housingwire)

• New Listings in Houston each week 2025 have outpaced 2024 (Source: HAR)

• Single-Family Months Inventory is now at 5.2 months, with HAR calling this a shift to a buyer’s market (Source: HAR)

• Average Sales Price in Houston has gone down just a smidge (-.7%) in May (Source: HAR)

What the numbers are saying

The takeaway for this month’s market update is pretty much the same as last month’s. Buyers have gotten accustomed to elevated interest rates and are now willing to explore the market, which explains why there’s a 20% year-over-year increase in mortgage purchase applications. 

And because 70%-80% of home sellers are also home buyers, this explains why there’s more inventory hitting the market.

Now I think a lot of sellers might worry or even panic when they hear it’s becoming a “buyer’s market” and that inventory numbers are starting to climb. But in my view, I think there are two important stats to keep in mind:

#1 - The number of closings are about the same as last year’s. Look at the week to week comparison down below. The point here is that homes are still selling.

#2 - Even though home prices are down, they are literally down less than 1%, as seen in May’s year-over-year numbers seen below. 

The point here is that the rise in inventory is not causing a crash in prices. There is still enough demand to keep pricing in the same general range as last year.

However, sellers are facing more competition. Before, scarce inventory and stiff buyer competition meant sellers might be able to get away with aspirational pricing with minimal effort. That is no longer the case. Pricing and presentation must be spot on now that buyers have many options to choose from.

Of course, everyone’s situation is different. If you’re looking to build a real estate game plan around today’s trends, reach out. We’re here to help.